Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (see, table below), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The positive number was driven in part by the start of the new federal fiscal year spending and the traditional holiday consumer season. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 23, 2023.  For the year, with two down quarters and now two up ones, the total GDP for the year is less than 2.0 percent.

December job numbers increased some 223,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (Above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment was 4.4 percent in December, consistent with seasonal work trends. [The new figure is up 0.5 basis points vs. Nov. ‘22 level; while being down by 0.6 points from last December 2021]. Employment in construction increased by 28,000 in December, as specialty trade contractors added 17,000 jobs; resulting in an average of 19,000 per month in 2022, little different than the average of 16,000 per month in 2021.

The general unemployment fell 0.2 to 3.5 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was reported at 5.7 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” improved to 62.3 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced a small increase to 60.1 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet]. Average hourly earnings have stalled after months of steady rises, now standing at $28.07 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart.

November job numbers increased some 263,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (Well above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment was 3.9 percent in November, consistent with seasonal work trends. [The new figure is up 0. basis points vs. Oct. ‘22 level; while being down by 1.8 points from last November 2021]. Construction employment continued to trend up in November (+20,000), with nonresidential building adding 8,000 jobs. Construction has added an average of 19,000 jobs per month thus far this year, little different from the 2021 average of 16,000 per month.     

The general unemployment remained at 3.7 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was reported at 6.0 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” was continued its slide over the last three months to 62.1 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced little changed at 59.9 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet]. Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $28.10 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (see, Table), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Most of the positive private sector growth occurred in the transportation sector, buoyed by summer vacation travel and some normalcy after being hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic and lingering shutdowns.  The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 30, 2022.

August job numbers tapered off increasing some 315,000 new positions down over 200K from July, according the latest Labor Department figures. (This is still above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment went up to 3.9 percent in August, consistent with seasonal work trends. [The new figure is up 0.4 basis points vs. July ‘22 level; while being down by 0.7 points from last August 2021]. Employment in construction began to wane, down by 60,000 in August from last month’s numbers.    

The general unemployment increased 0.2 to 3.7 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was up 0.3 to 6.0 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” rose three tenths to 62.4 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced a slight increase of 0.1 to 60.1 percent. Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.68 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart for details.

July job numbers continued their upward trend with a sizable move of 528,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (This is more than 3.0x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 3.5 percent in July, consistent seasonal work while matching the general unemployment percentage. [The new figure is down 0.2 basis points vs. June ‘22 level; while being down by 2.6 points from the pandemic/shutdown impacted 6.1% figure of last July 2021]. Employment in construction increased by 32,000 in July, as specialty trade contractors added 22,000 jobs. Construction overall employment is now 82,000 higher than in February 2020.   

The general unemployment slipped to 3.5 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was 5.7 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” slipped one tenth to 62.1 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced a slight increase of 0.1 to 60.0 percent. Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.57 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE the Workforce Statistics Chart 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller reduction in federal government spending.  However, recessions are technically defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth and are characterized by high unemployment, low or negative GDP growth, falling income and slowing retail sales, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which tracks the numbers.

Job numbers in June continued their upward trend with sizable move of 372,000 new positions according the latest Labor Department figures. (Again, this is more than 2.0x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 3.7 percent in June, consistent seasonal work and nearly matching the general unemployment percentage. [The new figure is down 0.1 basis points vs. April ‘22 level; while being down by 3.8 points from the pandemic/shutdown impacted 7.5% figure of last June+ 2021]. Overall, employment in construction had little change from May’s figures.  

The general unemployment remained at 3.6 percent for the fourth month in a row. (“Unemployed persons” was 5.9 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” slipped one tenth to 62.2 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced also experienced a slight drop down 0.2 to 59.1 percent.  Both are early signs of a potential cooling of the employment levels.  Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.45 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.

Workforce Statistics Chart

Job numbers in May continued their growth with another sizable move of 390,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (Again, this is more than 2.0x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 3.8 percent in May, consistent with improving seasonal weather trends. [The new figure is down 0.6 basis points vs. April ‘22 level; while being down by 2.9 points from the pandemic/shutdown impacted 6.7% figure of last May 2021]. Employment in construction increased by 36,000 in May, following no change in April. In May, job gains occurred in specialty trade contractors (+17,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (+11,000). Overall, construction employment is 40,000 higher than in February 2020. 

The general unemployment figure remained at 3.6 percent for the third month in a row. (“Unemployed persons” was 6.0 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” increased one tenth to 62.3 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced also experienced a slight increased up 0.1 to 60.1 percent.  Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.33 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.  In April, 7.4 percent of employed persons worked remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic/shutdowns, off only 0.3 percent from April.   

SEE the Workforce Statistics Chart

Job numbers in April maintained the pace of growth with another sizable move nearly identical to March, at 428,000 new positions according the latest Labor Department figures. (Again, this is more than 2.5x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 4.6 percent in April, consistent with improving seasonal weather trends. [The new figure is down 1.4 basis points vs. March ‘22 level; while being down by 3.1 points from the  pandemic/shutdown impacted 7.7% figure of last April 2021].  Overall, employment in construction is consist with normal seasonal upward job trends in April.  

The overall unemployment figure remained at 3.6 percent. (“Unemployed persons” also slipped to 5.9 million per the government count).  The “labor force participation rate” decreased to 62.2 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced also experienced a slight decreased down 0.1 to 60.0 percent.  Average hourly earnings have continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.12 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.  In April, 7.7 percent of employed persons worked remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic/shutdowns, off from 10.0 percent in March. 

SEE Workforce Statistics  Chart